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Brown Bag Seminar (2-8-12)


"Response and Sensitivity of the Stable Boundary Layer to Greenhouse Gas Forcing"
Presented by: Dick McNider (UAH)

One of the most significant signals in the thermometer-observed temperature record since 1900 is the decrease in the diurnal temperature range over land, largely due to rising of the minimum temperatures. Generally, climate models have not replicated this change in diurnal temperature range well. Due to the failure of the models, the cause for this night-time warming in the observed temperatures has been attributed to a variety of external causes. We take an alternative approach to examine the role the internal dynamics of the stable nocturnal boundary layer (SNBL) may play in impacting the response and sensitivity of minimum temperatures to added downward long-wave forcing. It appears that the nightly temperature at shelter height is a result of competition between thermal stability and mechanical shear. As indicated by previous nonlinear analyses of a truncated two-layer equation system, the winner of the stability and shear contest can be very sensitive to changes in greenhouse gas forcing, surface roughness, heat capacity, and wind speed. A new single-column model growing out of these nonlinear studies of the stable boundary layer is used to examine the SNBL. Specifically-detailed budget analyses of the model are provided that evaluate the response of the boundary layer to forcing and nonlinear sensitivity to mixing formulations. Because night-time warming as a function of wind speed has been used as a fingerprint technique to discern the impact of greenhouse gas forcing and urban forcing, sensitivity analyses of the model response to imposed wind speed is carried out. Based on these model analyses, it is likely that a part of the observed long-term increase in minimum temperature is reflecting a redistribution of heat by changes in turbulence in the SNBL and not by an accumulation of heat in the boundary layer or deep atmosphere.


Past Brown Bag Abstracts