Welcome::
The SATCAST algorithm produces 0-1 hour forecasts (i.e. "nowcasts") of new storms, specifically the occurrence of radar/rainfall echoes of 35 dBZ intensity or greater, which is a heavy rain shower. Some of these storms
will produce lightning. The colored objects are growing cumulus clouds
within the GOES imagery. Their growth is monitored over successive 7-15
min images in GOES data, using infrared temperature fields. The infrared
fields help measure cloud growth rates, cloud depths, and if a cloud has
ice or water particles at cloud top (usually the transition to ice leads
to increased precipitation production, and suggests an occurrence of
lightning). The colors, so-called "strength of signal" (SS), represent
increasing likelihoods that a 35 dBZ echo (i.e. a heavy rain shower) will
occur from a given cloud object. For objects with SS values <40 (blue
colors), one can interpret these as relatively un-developed clouds, or
cumulus clouds with small spatial dimensions, and therefore less likely to
make significant rain in the coming 30-60 min. Warmer (orange, red)
colored objects instead imply taller, more rapidly growing cumulus clouds
that therefore have a >75-80% change of becoming a storm in the coming
30-60 min. One needs to note the motion of a given object so to estimate
the ground location where the rain will fall.
|
|
|
|